Hi Harmonycptl, thanks for the comments. As a matter of fact, just yesterday I was at the FT conference warning them about further increases in the gold/oil ratio. I also wrote a 2 1/2 page article in this month's issue of FUTURES, where predicted gold to rise relative to oil and drag down the dollar. these are interesting times, but the conistently shortlived rallies in the market are a spectacular opprtunity to get back in on the short side (long CHF and JPY vs high yielders and USD). It is remarkable and a great opportunity. but careful from violent short term rallies in equities. we're breaching key technical levels.
Hi Tan, rate cut tuesday is more of a major development than a "surprise". Not a big "surprise" because AFTER FRIDAY's RETAIL SALES, Fed funds futures were already pricing as much as a 30% chance of a Fed cut as early as MONDAY or TUESDAY. If a new announcement regarding Lehman comes out on Sunday or Monday, then that might help markets a bit, (drag down on yen) which may reduce need for easing. That could win the Fed some time, but in my view, the most LIKELY SCENARIOS:
1) 50 bps cut in DISCOUNT RATE CUT this week; OR,
2) 50 bps FED FUNDS cut between September and October meetings.
Hi Hamish, the retail sales and PPI numbers were behind the intensification of the dollar decline. Have a look at the Intraday Thoughts right after the news. I mentioned in Wednesday's seminar that the Fed's next move is a rate cut and I sent CMC clients the chart showing a major trend line support in EURUSD at 1.3845. Here's what we said: "The chart below shows interim support stands at $1.3844, which is the 50% retracement of the rise from the 2006 low to the $1.6030 high. This level could also coincide with the $100 barrel mark in oil prices".
GBPUSD unlikely to follow above $1.80 which is HEAD in the Head&Shoulders (see chart sent on Monday). JPY may come under pressure if Fed cuts rates this week, but overall, USDJPY unlikley to break above 108.50. 105 remains target.
Shorting GBPCHF is still a great trade. Swiss economy is doing much better than the Eurozone, which makes CHF more attractive. i dont think SNB will cut rates any time soon. UK and GBP will continue to deteriorate as I had expected at the beginning of the year.
As for the next 6 months... any recovery in the global economy is likely to be more rewarding for CHF than GBP. But i expect global macro weakness and financial stress in the US to continue. Cable remains a great short with targets at 1.75 and 1.71 before year end. CHF may be best played against AUD and CAD.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(11 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(11 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(11 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (11 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (11 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (11 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(11 months ago)
إستعمال تحليل الإنترماركت والتحليل الفني الكلاسيكي لتداول الذهب و الناسداك و السندات. شاهد هنا
Using intermarket technicals analysis to trade XAUUSD Nasdaq100 and Bonds.Watch here.
Latest Hot-Chart - May 16
Dax 200 DMA Deviation
You remember we went short Dax40 in late March based on the 13% 200 DMA extension, which gave us at least a 500-pt gain.
View Hot-Chart..
1) 50 bps cut in DISCOUNT RATE CUT this week; OR,
2) 50 bps FED FUNDS cut between September and October meetings.
Stay tuned.
GBPUSD unlikely to follow above $1.80 which is HEAD in the Head&Shoulders (see chart sent on Monday).
JPY may come under pressure if Fed cuts rates this week, but overall, USDJPY unlikley to break above 108.50. 105 remains target.
Shorting GBPCHF is still a great trade. Swiss economy is doing much better than the Eurozone, which makes CHF more attractive. i dont think SNB will cut rates any time soon. UK and GBP will continue to deteriorate as I had expected at the beginning of the year.
As for the next 6 months... any recovery in the global economy is likely to be more rewarding for CHF than GBP. But i expect global macro weakness and financial stress in the US to continue. Cable remains a great short with targets at 1.75 and 1.71 before year end. CHF may be best played against AUD and CAD.
Ashraf